This article was written by Asa Zaretsky, class of 2018.
The presidential vote was not the only one conducted Nov. 8. Candidates from all across Florida faced off for offices such as city council and senate as well. Election results were predicted by pundits and pollsters to strongly favor Democratic candidates, with the entire state going to Hillary Clinton. However, the actual results Floridians woke up to was a Donald Trump and Sen. Marco Rubio victory. The state legislature also remained overwhelmingly Republican after weak Democratic gains. Florida allowed for a path to victory for Trump, and paved his road to the White House. These results stem from a few major factors, Rubio’s ground game and lower African American turnout being chief among them.
Despite his defeat by President-elect Donald Trump in the Florida Presidential Primary in March, Sen. Rubio maintained an impressive amount of support with Cubans from the more southern and western portions of Miami. He also commanded support among college-educated suburban Republicans reluctant to vote for Trump. After re-entering the Florida Senate election in June, Sen. Rubio and national Republicans invested a vast amount of money into attracting Cubans and suburban Republicans to their cause, an effort that was not countered by the relatively poorly funded Democrat Patrick Murphy whose campaign was abandoned by the DNC. Murphy and Clinton’s opposition to the Cuban embargo hurt them among Cubans and moderate Republicans in the state. Despite Sen. Rubio’s reluctance to support Trump for president, he attracted Cubans and suburban Republicans from his ground game to vote for Trump and other Republicans on the ballot, providing a much needed bump to Trump.
The other main factor in the Democrats’ loss was low African American turnout. While this demographic effect could be predicted without President Obama running, it was in greater numbers than expected. In South Florida especially, turnout was low for African Americans, an event predicted by Democratic Rep. Alcee Hastings who complained earlier this year to the DNC and the Hillary Clinton campaign about a lack of outreach towards African American voters. Enthusiasm for Clinton was especially dampened among younger African American voters by her private email server controversy and the perception of her being out-of-touch with the issues plaguing the black community such as criminal justice reform.
These two issues propelled Republicans to victory across the state, and Democrats do not seem to be interested in making the same mistake again. The election for chair of the Florida Democratic Party is soon and although no candidates have officially been announced, the establishment interests represented by outgoing chair Allison Tant are not favored to win, with a myriad of progressives and grassroots activists being considered for the role.
Regardless of the outcome of the election, the Florida Democrats will be bringing a different approach to the elections in 2018 and 2020.
